Almost halfway through the year - time to review Biotech Guru Steven Burrill’s 2011 Predictions on the Biotech Industry (posted Dec 31, 2010)

"Overall the upcoming year will be a good one for the biotechnology industry,"

1) Biotech and the Capital Markets: Expect to see the biotech industry continue to outperform the general markets as the financing environment continues to improve in 2011.

2) Biotech IPOs: The biotech IPO window will remain open despite the fact that the 17 new biotech issues that debuted on the U.S. market in 2010 were plagued by lackluster receptions (selling fewer shares well below the pricing range) and their average annual market performance was down by 13%. He predicted least 25 completed biotech IPOs in the US in 2011. haven't seen much yet

3) Capital: The industry has achieved a "steady state" in terms of financing...raising about $15 billion annually. This situation will continue in 2011. The industry's collective market cap will also remain at its present $360 billion level as market value growth will be offset by acquisitions.

4) Partnering Continues : Both big pharma and big biotech will again compete for companies with advanced product pipelines. The deal structures will embrace "shared risk". The days when biotech enjoyed major upfront payments for pharma companies to access their technologies are over. Collaborations with emerging market players in China, India and Latin America will also increase. no-brainer

5) Mergers & Acquisitions: The predicted surge in big Pharma acquisitions of biotech companies- yeap, it does not end
-Sanofi /Genzyme
-Teva/Cephalon (the circumstances were suprising!)
-Takeda / Nycomed (emerging market story once again)

6) Pharma Restructuring: Pharma companies will continue to make job cuts and restructuring their businesses ahead of loss of patents protection on major blockbusters. no-brainer

7) Increased government involvement on healthcare: Medicare and Medicaid, will continue to play a greater role in the delivery and reimbursement of healthcare. This trend will create an array of new regulatory and compensatory rules, issues, and challenges for healthcare providers. yes, it is all about costs- aka Makena and Lucentis/ Avastin stories

8) Biosimilars: Healthcare reform carries provision instructing the FDA to create a pathway for biosimilars and expect to see both biotech and pharma companies take a keen interest in the discussions on the drafting of new regulations governing the development of biosimilars. (related to costs)

9) Converging technologies impact healthcare: Expect to see a greater emphasis on prevention and wellness. A greater understanding of human genomics and the advent of molecular diagnostics, and the convergence of information, wireless, and medical technology promises to make personalized medicine an ever present reality in the way doctors and patients approach healthcare.

10) Regulatory environment: The industry will continue to adjust to a regulatory environment that includes comparative effectiveness research (CER). Payors will be looking at CER as a way to gather the necessary data on whether to reimburse for genomically guided medicines. With PDUFA expiring in 2012 there will be a major battleground over drug safety and review issues in Congress in 2011. (sounds very much about costs too)

11) Science and Technology: The evolving legal battle over the patentability of genes will heat up; uncertainty will continue to swirl around stem cells but regenerative medicine will be hot.

12) Clean tech will boom: The clean tech boom in non-food crops will continue as major investments in solar power, wind power, and next generation biofuels gets attention. The market will not only embrace green, but technologies that improve energy efficiency and environmental "friendliness"-less polluting and less consuming.

13) Global markets: Expect emerging markets to continue to be a dominant factor. Increasing affluence, a growing middle class, and government policies will make healthcare big business in these countries.

SOURCE Burrill & Company